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WooDawn",{"id":492,"path":493,"title":494},"zh_sitePages\u002Flegal\u002Fprivacy.md","\u002Flegal\u002Fprivacy","隐私说明",{"id":496,"path":497,"title":498},"zh_sitePages\u002Flegal\u002Fterms.md","\u002Flegal\u002Fterms","内容使用说明",{"document":500,"isArticle":894},{"id":501,"title":502,"abbreviations":503,"aliases":504,"answers":505,"appliesTo":506,"articleType":507,"body":508,"businessModel":883,"constrainedBy":884,"currency":885,"description":886,"discussionUrl":506,"domains":887,"evidenceStatus":890,"extension":891,"funnel":892,"implements":893,"indexable":894,"measuredBy":895,"meta":896,"metric":506,"navigation":894,"needs":897,"originalSources":898,"path":42,"regions":899,"related":900,"reviewAfter":506,"roles":901,"seo":904,"seoImage":506,"seoTitle":506,"sources":905,"stages":906,"status":908,"stem":909,"supersededBy":506,"tags":910,"term":506,"themeSources":916,"tools":917,"updatedAt":920,"uses":921,"verification":922,"verifiedAt":920,"__hash__":923},"zh_articles\u002Fcommerce\u002Fcohort-analysis.md","队列分析：按首单时间看留存与价值",[],[],[],null,"concept",{"type":509,"value":510,"toc":873},"minimark",[511,531,536,592,595,603,606,609,617,620,623,726,729,811,814,817,821,824,836,839,848,856,859,862,865],[512,513,514,515,520,521,525,526,530],"p",{},"把所有顾客放在一起算复购率，会掩盖一件事：去年获得的顾客和上个月获得的顾客，已经有不同长度的购买机会。队列分析按共同的起点入组，再比较起点之后相同年龄的行为。它把",[516,517,519],"a",{"href":518},"\u002Fzh\u002Fcommerce\u002Frepeat-purchase-retention","复购与留存","展开到时间维度；术语见",[516,522,524],{"href":523},"\u002Fzh\u002Fterms\u002Fcohort","Cohort","，具体建表练习见",[516,527,529],{"href":528},"\u002Fzh\u002Ftasks\u002Fdefine-repeat-purchase-metrics","定义复购口径","。",[532,533,535],"h2",{"id":534},"先选入组事件再固定成员","先选入组事件，再固定成员",[537,538,539,555],"table",{},[540,541,542],"thead",{},[543,544,545,549,552],"tr",{},[546,547,548],"th",{},"入组起点",[546,550,551],{},"回答的问题",[546,553,554],{},"不能直接替代什么",[556,557,558,570,581],"tbody",{},[543,559,560,564,567],{},[561,562,563],"td",{},"首次有效付款购买",[561,565,566],{},"成为付费顾客后怎样再次购买",[561,568,569],{},"注册后的激活或首购率",[543,571,572,575,578],{},[561,573,574],{},"注册",[561,576,577],{},"建立账号后如何使用、购买",[561,579,580],{},"已经付款的顾客留存",[543,582,583,586,589],{},[561,584,585],{},"首次被分析系统观察到",[561,587,588],{},"被观测到访后怎样返回",[561,590,591],{},"自然人的终身首次接触或首次购买",[512,593,594],{},"本页演算用完整历史确认的首次有效付款，排除测试、取消、零保留商品金额订单及自动订阅续费。对每个顾客保留稳定标识和首购时点，按同一数据截止判断退款，并冻结这次队列快照。身份合并或补到历史订单后，若需要重算首购与成员，应另留版本。",[512,596,597,598,602],{},"没有更早历史时，只能称“现有记录中的首次购买”，不能把它写成已确认新客。不能按后来的复购结果删除未复购者，或把新买家补进旧队列。动态经营分群见",[516,599,601],{"href":600},"\u002Fzh\u002Fcommerce\u002Fcustomer-lifecycle-segmentation","顾客生命周期分层","，它和固定首购队列承担不同用途。",[532,604,605],{"id":605},"月份年龄不等于经过30天",[512,607,608],{},"按自然月入组时，M0是首购所在月，M1是下一个自然月，M2是再下一个月。5月2日与5月31日首购者都属于5月队列，其M1都是6月，但各自距离首购的天数不同。",[512,610,611,612,616],{},"按实际经过时间观察时，则可为每人建立首购后[30天,60天)窗口，正如",[516,613,615],{"href":614},"\u002Fzh\u002Fterms\u002Fcustomer-retention-rate","购买留存率词条","的约定。两种方法都可用，问题不同；不能把“次月复购”直接标成“30至60天复购”。登记时写明时区、边界、每格起止及数据截止。",[532,618,619],{"id":619},"一张可以手算的队列表",[512,621,622],{},"以下八位顾客及订单全部虚构，完整历史已确认，均为有效的一次性购买，身份无重叠、无取消退款。时区Asia\u002FShanghai，纳入2026年8月1日00:00之前的记录；本例不讨论之后可能出现的变化。",[537,624,625,638],{},[540,626,627],{},[543,628,629,632,635],{},[546,630,631],{},"顾客",[546,633,634],{},"首次付款日期",[546,636,637],{},"截止前的后续购买日期",[556,639,640,651,662,673,684,695,706,716],{},[543,641,642,645,648],{},[561,643,644],{},"A",[561,646,647],{},"5月2日",[561,649,650],{},"5月20日、6月10日",[543,652,653,656,659],{},[561,654,655],{},"B",[561,657,658],{},"5月15日",[561,660,661],{},"7月5日",[543,663,664,667,670],{},[561,665,666],{},"C",[561,668,669],{},"5月31日",[561,671,672],{},"6月30日、7月20日",[543,674,675,678,681],{},[561,676,677],{},"D",[561,679,680],{},"5月8日",[561,682,683],{},"无",[543,685,686,689,692],{},[561,687,688],{},"E",[561,690,691],{},"6月2日",[561,693,694],{},"7月10日",[543,696,697,700,703],{},[561,698,699],{},"F",[561,701,702],{},"6月29日",[561,704,705],{},"6月30日",[543,707,708,711,713],{},[561,709,710],{},"G",[561,712,661],{},[561,714,715],{},"7月25日",[543,717,718,721,724],{},[561,719,720],{},"H",[561,722,723],{},"7月30日",[561,725,683],{},[512,727,728],{},"下表每格为“该月有至少一次后续有效购买的顾客数 ÷ 原队列人数”。首单本身不算复购，M0仅计同月第二笔及以后的订单；同一人一个格子只计一次。",[537,730,731,754],{},[540,732,733],{},[543,734,735,738,742,745,748,751],{},[546,736,737],{},"首购队列",[546,739,741],{"align":740},"right","固定人数",[546,743,744],{},"M0当期复购",[546,746,747],{},"M1当期复购",[546,749,750],{},"M2当期复购",[546,752,753],{},"截至M2累计复购",[556,755,756,776,795],{},[543,757,758,761,764,767,770,773],{},[561,759,760],{},"5月",[561,762,763],{"align":740},"4",[561,765,766],{},"A：1\u002F4 = 25%",[561,768,769],{},"A、C：2\u002F4 = 50%",[561,771,772],{},"B、C：2\u002F4 = 50%",[561,774,775],{},"A、B、C：3\u002F4 = 75%",[543,777,778,781,784,787,790,793],{},[561,779,780],{},"6月",[561,782,783],{"align":740},"2",[561,785,786],{},"F：1\u002F2 = 50%",[561,788,789],{},"E：1\u002F2 = 50%",[561,791,792],{},"未完整观察",[561,794,792],{},[543,796,797,800,802,805,807,809],{},[561,798,799],{},"7月",[561,801,783],{"align":740},[561,803,804],{},"G：1\u002F2 = 50%",[561,806,792],{},[561,808,792],{},[561,810,792],{},[512,812,813],{},"5月队列的当期复购可起伏：A在M1买过、M2没买，并不被永久移出队列。累计复购取截至目标年龄至少复购过一次的顾客并集，因此25% + 50% + 50% = 125%不是累计复购；应去重为75%。6月队列截至M1累计为E、F共100%，也不能拿它与5月截至M2的75%直接评高低。",[512,815,816],{},"在冻结人群及订单规则不变的前提下，累计复购人数随观察范围延长不会减少；全店历史复购比例还会受新增单次购买顾客等因素影响，不能据此说所有复购率只升不降。",[532,818,820],{"id":819},"横向看轨迹纵向对齐年龄","横向看轨迹，纵向对齐年龄",[512,822,823],{},"横向看同一队列是否在特定年龄再次购买；纵向只比较同一列且已经观察完整的队列。未完整观察用文字或空值标记，不能填0；真正的0意味着窗口完整、数据可用而没有符合条件的行为。",[512,825,826,827,831,832,530],{},"规模也要保留：两人队列的一次购买就改变50个百分点，本例只能训练读表，不能提供经营基准。对齐年龄仍无法消除季节、品类、价格、渠道构成等差异；颜色更深不证明某次活动有效。先核对",[516,828,830],{"href":829},"\u002Fzh\u002Fcommerce\u002Fdata-quality","数据质量","，因果判断再用合适的",[516,833,835],{"href":834},"\u002Fzh\u002Fcommerce\u002Fexperimentation","实验设计",[532,837,838],{"id":838},"工具中的队列为何不能直接互换",[512,840,841,847],{},[516,842,846],{"href":843,"rel":844},"https:\u002F\u002Fhelp.shopify.com\u002Fen\u002Fmanual\u002Freports-and-analytics\u002Fshopify-reports\u002Freport-types\u002Fdefault-reports\u002Fcustomers-reports",[845],"nofollow","Shopify顾客报表","默认按首单日期入组，Period 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